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NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 takes place on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag falls at two p.m. ET, and each corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked trail where passing is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next success of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He has a win at Bristol under his belt and can be recorded at 14-1 to triumph in the most current 2019 Food City 500 chances. However, there are six drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Bristol chances better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is the preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you make your 2019 Food City 500 choices, visit the NASCAR at Bristol predictions in the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors such as track record and current results into account.

The model is off to a solid start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a top contender at the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the motorists at McClure’s top five went to top-five finishes at the Automobile Club 400. Anybody who has followed its picks is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic places like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his bloodstream. His version simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you that the model is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol odds.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this course among active NASCAR drivers. This includes a victory last August at the NASCAR at Bristol race because of his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion battled his way into the front of the package from the starting position in that race also has also previously come from the 27th and 13th starting positions to win at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR seen Bristol and certainly will start 27th on Sunday. He’s off to a hot start this season also, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash at Daytona and third at Atlanta.

And a huge shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites at 12-1, doesn’t crack the top five. There are far better values than the 12-1 premium he’s controlling.

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