Together with the UFC’s next pay-per-view event just over three weeks away, it’s time to start taking a look at the betting odds for your card. Two bouts on the card already have lines introduced, and they are about as different as could be. At the main event, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his newly won UFC bantamweight title against the guy he took it from, Renan Barao. In their first battle, Barao closed as a enormous -910 favorite (wager $910 to win $100) over Dillashaw. The Team Alpha Male member dominated that first fight, scoring a fifth-round TKO in among the biggest anti upsets in UFC history. This moment, the chances are much nearer, with Dillashaw sitting at -140 and Barao the small underdog in +120 (bet $100 to win $120). There are eight extra bouts on the card that up until now did not have gambling lines posted. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas changed that now as he released the full UFC 177 gambling odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. ————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Bantamweight Title TJ Dillashaw -140 Renan Barao +100 Tony Ferguson -265 Danny Castillo +185 Bethe Correia -160 Shayna Baszler +120 Carlos Diego Ferreira -280 Ramsey Nijem +200 Yancy Medeiros -135 Damon Jackson -105 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Lorenz Larkin -140 Derek Brunson +100 Henry Cejudo -185 Scott Jorgensen +145 Anthony Hamilton -210 Ruan Potts +160 Joe Soto -125 Anthony Birchak -115 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Night, 7:30pm ET) Chris Wade -140 Cain Carrizosa +100 ————– Brad’s Analysis: I actually want Bethe Correia to win this particular fight, just so I do not have to hear anything about the ridiculous”Four Horsewomen” ever again. That said, Correia has never confronted anyone of Baszler’s skill level, especially when it comes to grappling. I believe Baszler can wade through Correia’s striking and drag this battle to the ground where she’ll have a distinct advantage. The greatest worry for me is about Baszler’s long layoff and injury woes of late, and it can be more than enough to keep me from gambling her. Tony Ferguson seems like a nightmare matchup for Danny Castillo. Castillo has been tagged on the feet several times prior to, and unlike his charms against Tim Means or Anthony Njokuani, he won’t be able to fall back on his wrestling here if the striking does not go to plan. This ought to be quite competitive in all areas, but Ferguson has minor edges which should propel him to victory. Lorenz Larkin is only 27, but the decrease in his performances of late makes him look more like a 37-year-old. He looked totally listless against Brad Tavares for 10 minutes, and was immediately dispatched by Costas Philippou. On the other hand, Derek Brunson supplied the toughest test of Yoel Romero’s career in his latest bout. It seems like Larkin was extremely overvalued as a potential while at Strikeforce, while Brunson had been missed. This is a very difficult bout to predict in terms of a negative or a total, so I will likely stay out entirely. On the other hand, I believe Ramsey Nijem is in for a rough night against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Nijem might have a wrestling advantage here, but even that’s questionable. Ferreira is the far greater entry grappler, and likely even the greater striker at this stage (although Nijem’s advancement in that respect last time out was fine to see). I expect Ferreira to find the win, and likely put another finish on his resume from his entry abilities or Nijem’s questionable chin. Henry Cejudo consistently made for interesting bouts even when he had been confronting completely overmatched contest, so now that he’s up against a valid test in Scott Jorgensen, I have to admit this is among my most anticipated bouts on the card. The physical benefits here belong to Cejudo, as does the wrestling advantage, obviously. He may not have the well-rounded skill set to stop Jorgensen, but I think he wins rounds using takedowns and scrambling. Cejudo handed one of the important tests for prospects in his last outing too, getting broken square on the jaw and shaking it off to win not just the fight, but round too. The major question with Cejudo, as always, is: how concentrated is he? Maybe being signed by the UFC was that the impetus he had to begin taking the sport seriously, as in his past appearances (and non-appearances) with Legacy FC, it’s quite obvious he has been coasting occasionally. Against Jorgensen he might not have the ability to get away with a half effort, and when he does it’ll make him even more particular. A Legacy veteran making his UFC debut with less fanfare is 39-year-old Richard Odoms. His sole loss came to UFC heavyweight Jared Rosholt, but he has generally been able to restrain and outhustle competitions to pick up choices. That will be hard against Ruslan Magomedov, who really possesses decent cardio for a heavyweight, to go along with his solid striking. Coming off of almost a year layoff, it’s difficult to expect much from Odoms, therefore that I anticipate Magomedov to pick up the win, but he is someone I fully expect to fade if he can get a few more wins and confront adequate competition. The hype on Yancy Medeiros came a bit too fast, and should almost be snuffed out in this point. His striking defense appeared atrocious against the two Yves Edwards and Jim Miller, along with his entry match was practically non-existent as he had been exploited within seconds of hitting the floor against Miller. Perhaps that could work to the benefit of his backers against Justin Edwards however, as Edwards really isn’t UFC caliber, even at this point. Edwards has a fantastic guillotine, rather than many different skills, so Medeiros has this fight to win so long as he doesn’t dive in that weapon. Edwards will likely come out fast, because he must know that a win will indicate the conclusion of the UFC employ. Talking of pink-slip derbies, the loser of Ruan Potts and Anthony Hamilton will probably be shown the door too, since both place on putrid dislpays within their UFC debuts. Potts is an aggressive — but not overly talented — grappler, while Hamilton showed massive holes in his grappling against Alexey Oleinik. On the flip side, Hamilton has some power and Potts was put out with one shot on the floor against Soa Palelei. Either guy could complete this fight quickly and that I would not be amazed, or else they could play it safe and we could be treated to some truly awful heavyweight MMA. If the cost for this particular bout to go over 1.5 rounds is high enough, I might just take a shot there in hopes the bout is of the bad selection, but I can not see myself putting much more than Monopoly money down with this competition.
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